“God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom to know the difference. “
(The Serenity Prayer)

The Serenity Prayer is perhaps the most simple, yet profound advice I have ever received - and it’s a prayer I recite frequently. By internalizing this message, you have a complete framework for acceptance and purpose.

“Everyone has two lives, and the second begins when you realize you only have one. “

Hello, only me
Up on tip toes trying to see
I was outside looking in
When I caught my reflection

I saw myself for the first time in a long while
…

Just like me, to not look properly
Just like me, to give up so softly
Just like me, beating my hands on the floor
Just like me, not like me anymore

'Cause I, I fеlt the colours drain away
Summer fade to grеy
And I pushed the world away

- “MIGHT DELETE LATER”, LARRY PINK THE HUMAN

Seek to surround yourself with people who are on their second life - these people are very fun, and will provide a wealth and depth to your life that is beyond words. Our life is finite, and I believe that regularly reflecting on this truth brings out the best in each of us.

As the lyrics state - from time to time you’ll need to “catch your reflection” from time to time, evaluate, and adjust - but that’s exactly what your second life is all about. Don’t push the world away.

What you do is who you are, but you are not your mistakes.

This is a paradox pieced together from Ben Horowitz’s ideas on building culture within your organization alongwith general guidance on giving yourself grace. Your behavior reveals deep truths about yourself - but life is a journey, a journey in which YOU have the power to become the person you wish to be.

“Who’s got it better than us? NOBODY!”
- Jim Harbaugh

Stay grounded, in nearly all circumstances, there is much to be grateful for. We must always recognize that optimism is essential to human flourishing and improving our condition.

We MUST cherish our children, our family, and our friends

Some might say that the above statement is self-evident, but the reality of modern life tells a different story.

• People are having less children, having children later, and families are smaller than ever before.

• Demographic collapse is a major challenge.

• The “nuclear family” is demonized by some in the West.

• People have more problems with isolation/loneliness than ever before.

The meaning of life is to plant trees under whose shade you do not expect to sit.
- Nelson Henderson

While having children is a personal choice and not for everyone, I believe it is vital—to our happiness, our sense of purpose, and to the ongoing work of building a society worth inheriting.

A man travels the world over in search of what he needs and returns home to find it.
- George Moore

We spend so much of our lives chasing meaning, success, or identity out in the world, only to realize it's been with us all along. The real center of our life is our HOME... our family, our friends, our people.

Friendship is unnecessary, like philosophy, like art... It has no survival value; rather it is one of those things which give value to survival.
- C.S. Lewis

We don’t need friends to survive, but we need them to make survival worth it. Friends don’t feed us or clothe us, but they remind us who we are, carry the weight with us, and give life texture, laughter, and meaning.

The future of human prosperity is, for now, contingent on American exceptionalism. 🇺🇸

“The cause of America is in a great measure the cause of all mankind.”
- Thomas Paine

“No experiment in history has done more to uplift the human condition than the American experiment.”
- Many/Common Convention amongst American Exceptionalists(?)

It's a stretch to assign strict causality to the chart above, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that most of humanity’s progress in well-being has taken place under a global hegemon rooted in beliefs about freedom, markets, technology, and progress. Maybe humanity has outgrown the need for America—or maybe that time will come. But I believe America remains a mission-critical institution for human prosperity. For sake of brevity here, suffice it to say this is a very complex topic that may be better suited for it’s own dedicated post or topic. Nonetheless, this is my “truth”! 🇺🇸

Rituals are under-rated.

Rituals give shape to belief, rhythm to time, and roots to identity. Without them, we drift. With them, we return—to purpose, presence, and something greater than ourselves.

I did not believe this to be true until I married my wife in front of all of our family, friends, and loved ones.

Atheism is not only a religion, but also “anti-science”.

Atheism isn’t the absence of religion—it’s one of the most rigid. It demands absolute faith in randomness, worship of human reason, and certainty that residual mystery is a myth. In doing so, it becomes anti-spiritual, anti-intellectual, and profoundly unscientific. Simply put, atheism refuses to consider what we cannot control, measure, comprehend, or explain.

“God is dead. God remains dead. And we have killed him.
How shall we comfort ourselves, the murderers of all murderers?
What was holiest and mightiest of all that the world has yet owned has bled to death under our knives: who will wipe this blood off us?
What water is there for us to clean ourselves?
What festivals of atonement, what sacred games shall we have to invent?
Must we ourselves not become gods simply to appear worthy of it?”

- Friedrich Nietzsche, The Gay Science

I believe God is real - but that’s not the point I’m making, nor was it the point that Nietzsche (an atheist himself) was making.

All great organizations are cults.

This applies to companies, teams, families, religions, etc - any group of people. They have doctrine, language, ritual, and belief. They ask for more than labor—they demand loyalty, identity, and faith. And the best ones return meaning in exchange.

“Realize deeply that the present moment is all you ever have.”
— Eckhart Tolle

The present is where choice, change, and meaning live. To get the most out of life, we must show up fully in THIS moment.

We all remember, when we were kids, that weekends, Christmas breaks, summers and car rides lasted forever! Now that we are older, things like vacations or weekends go by in a flash! We don’t know what happened to whole years! It is Middle of June already and it seems yesterday it was Christmas! What gives?

Well, I personally think that a person’s perception of time depends on how long that person has been on this planet. As examples, I am going to use Jordyn (six years old), Drew (thirty years old) and Greg who is sixty years old.

• Greg is 60 years old, or 720 months old, or 21,600 days old.

• Drew is 30 years old, 360 months old or 10,800 days old.

• Jordyn is 6 years old, 72 months old or 2,160 days old.

So for Jordyn, a weekend is two full days. That same Jordyn-time span for Drew is one fifth of Jordyn’s time, or around 10 hours! For Greg, Jordyn’s two days is one tenth of Greg-time, or about five hours!

Now let’s go the other way. For Greg’s weekend of two days, Drew perceives Greg’s two days as four of Drew days, and Jordyn perceives Gregs two days as 20 days!!!!

Let’s break it down differently –

Greg’s 1 hour is 2 hours to Drew and 10 hours to Jordyn.

Jordyn’s 1 hour is 12 minutes to Drew and around 6 minutes to Greg!

No wonder kids are always asking “Are we there yet?”

When I was young, vacations lasted a lifetime. We will be leaving for the beach in a soon. We will be gone seven days. However, those seven days will be perceived much differently between Greg, Drew and Jordyn.

Let’s look at the difference:

• For Drew, his seven days will be three and a half days to Greg, but to Jordyn, his seven days will be longer than a month!!!

• For Jordyn, her seven days will be less than a day and a half for Drew and less than eight hours for Greg!

• For Greg, his seven days will be two weeks for Drew and over two months for Jordyn!

So when Drew and Greg go play a round of golf, it takes 5 hours for Drew and 2 1/2 hours for Greg!

This is also why Jordyn wants to do so much on the weekends. She has a lot more “time” than we do!

This is also why, as we get older, time goes by much quicker! My perception.

Intro

Here we are—my first post on Substack. I’ll be sharing all sorts of content here, covering my wide range of interests in business, tech, politics, and more. One thing you’ll learn about me through these posts is that I believe the best way to share ideas, make an impact, and truly understand the world is to make bold, forward-looking predictions.

This approach feels far more intellectually honest than just commentating. Commentary often turns into piling on or armchair quarterbacking—sharing opinions without taking real risks—and, at its worst, devolves into insincere virtue signaling. It’s easy to criticize or signal alignment with popular ideas without offering meaningful insights or putting skin in the game. Predictions, however, require you to take a clear stance. You’re tied to specific outcomes, which means you have to reflect on how things unfold, own the results, and learn from them—whether you were right or wrong.

The professionals I admire most are those who do exactly that—leaders who repeatedly take big swings and make bets that shape the world. You see this skill on display in both business and politics, two areas I follow closely. I’m also a big fan of the All-In Podcast—especially their yearly predictions episodes. Inspired by that, I’m kicking things off here with my own predictions for 2025.

Of course, I expect that many of my predictions and assessments will end up being wrong—that’s the nature of taking a stance on the future. But that’s the point: make your case, observe the outcomes, reflect, and adjust your perspective. It’s a process I find both humbling and rewarding, and I’m excited to share it with you.

A year from now, we’ll revisit this post and see how I did.

Biggest Political Winner

Libertarians
In 2025, I predict it will be a big year for libertarian ideals—not because Libertarians will gain seats or power, but because their principles are taking center stage in a way we haven’t seen before. While libertarianism is often criticized as overly dogmatic—pushing minimal government to impractical extremes—its core ideas are gaining momentum.

The incoming Trump administration, with key leaders influenced by libertarian thinking, could bring these ideas to the forefront in areas like crypto regulation, fiscal conservatism, and anti-interventionism. Public frustration with government overreach and rising concerns about inflation, national debt, and foreign entanglements have created fertile ground for libertarian principles to resonate.

That said, true “success” will depend on whether these ideas translate into action. Achieving meaningful progress—cutting government spending, enacting thoughtful crypto policies, or scaling back foreign interventions—will be the real test. Without those outcomes, libertarianism might remain a growing influence in the discourse but fall short of driving tangible change.

Biggest Political Loser

The “Party Line”
In 2025, I think the biggest political loser will be “The Party Line”—the carefully crafted, top-down messaging from political parties, institutions, and media outlets designed to control public perception. The rise of mechanisms like Community Notes on Twitter (now X) and Meta’s planned adoption of similar tools has made it harder than ever to effectively enforce a singular narrative.

As a general rule - Leaders who stick too rigidly to the “party line” will face growing scrutiny from a public that’s better equipped than ever to call out spin and demand accountability.

Biggest Business Winner

Waymo
Self-driving cars have been the dream of technologists for years, but 2025 is the year it becomes mainstream. Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle company, made huge strides in 2024, completing over 4 million driverless rides in the U.S. Earlier this year, my wife Jackie and I took a ride in a Waymo in San Francisco, and it was incredible—smooth, safe, and undeniably futuristic. While Tesla’s FSD gets a lot of attention, and rightfully so, as it stands today it still relies on human oversight. Waymo is delivering fully driverless cars at scale, standing out in a space where GM’s Cruise stumbled and shut down. With expansion plans, rumored deals with automakers, and millions of Americans about to see or experience driverless cars for the first time, Waymo is set for continued growth, adoption, and improving - making it my biggest business winner of 2025.

Biggest Business Deal

PGA-Tour / LIV reunify Professional Golf
Professional golf has had a turbulent few years since LIV officially broke away from the PGA Tour and kicked off its inaugural season in 2022. In a period where recreational golf’s popularity in America has experienced a renaissance, the landscape of the professional game is changing rapidly.

According to the latest economic impact report conducted by the National Golf Foundation, golf’s overall participation base in the U.S. is 41.1 million, up from 32 million in 2016.
(May 2023, PGA Tour)

The PGA Tour and LIV announced a merger in June 2023, yet progress has stalled. Still, a unified framework that brings the world’s best players together more often is an undeniable win-win. I’m betting that 2025 is the year that this deal gets over the line.

Most Contrarian Belief / Long-shot

The U.S. passes a comprehensive bill on the role of immigration
Lost in the conversation about border security is a simple, yet foundational question.

”In today’s world, what role should immigration play in the United States of America?”

To answer this, we must wrestle with complicated issues like:

• How do we ensure we have a sufficient workforce for industries like construction and agriculture?

• How do we (and should we) seek to attract the best minds for critical sectors such as defense, AI, and other high-tech fields?

• How do we ensure our labor policies adequately protect the wages of American workers?

Over the last decade, immigration debates have largely revolved around border security. Should this administration effectively tackle illegal immigration on the Southern border, Americans can, should, and may well be forced to finally pivot the conversation toward broader policy reforms - for example, which visa categories (e.g., H-1B, H-2A, family-based, refugee/asylum) should be changed or expanded?

Most Anticipated Trend

Non-technical people DIY’ing software
In 2024, Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT truly broke out, capturing public imagination and expanding software’s potential. With these tools serving as both the research layer and the output layer, people are able to tackle problems, generate useful content, and articulate coherent ideas in ways that were previously unattainable.All In Podcast

Innovative generalists have been applying this technology as a “lever”. Now, highly specialized AI tools are being deployed at scale. As an example, a person with no background in software can build and deploy a basic application in less than an hour using the new Replit Agent.

I’m excited for 2025 to be the year that people begin DIY’ing software the same way they DIY projects around the house.

Most Anticipated Media

Stranger Things Season 5
While I’m not a huge TV or movie buff, I’m really looking forward to the final season of Stranger Things. The show has it all—an incredible theme, compelling characters, and some of the coolest villains I’ve ever seen. Alexa, play “Running Up That Hill” by Kate Bush.