My Predictions for 2025

Inspired by the All In Podcast - see my predictions for the upcoming year.

Note: In the spirit of finally getting this first post out—only a month late (lol)—I’ve omitted a few sections I originally planned to include: Biggest Business Loser, Best Performing Asset, and Worst Performing Asset. I’ve also combined my “Most Contrarian Belief” and my “Longshot Prediction” into a single point for brevity. I’ll try to be better next year!

Intro

Here we are—my first post on Substack. I’ll be sharing all sorts of content here, covering my wide range of interests in business, tech, politics, and more. One thing you’ll learn about me through these posts is that I believe the best way to share ideas, make an impact, and truly understand the world is to make bold, forward-looking predictions.

This approach feels far more intellectually honest than just commentating. Commentary often turns into piling on or armchair quarterbacking—sharing opinions without taking real risks—and, at its worst, devolves into insincere virtue signaling. It’s easy to criticize or signal alignment with popular ideas without offering meaningful insights or putting skin in the game. Predictions, however, require you to take a clear stance. You’re tied to specific outcomes, which means you have to reflect on how things unfold, own the results, and learn from them—whether you were right or wrong.

The professionals I admire most are those who do exactly that—leaders who repeatedly take big swings and make bets that shape the world. You see this skill on display in both business and politics, two areas I follow closely. I’m also a big fan of the All-In Podcast—especially their yearly predictions episodes. Inspired by that, I’m kicking things off here with my own predictions for 2025.

Of course, I expect that many of my predictions and assessments will end up being wrong—that’s the nature of taking a stance on the future. But that’s the point: make your case, observe the outcomes, reflect, and adjust your perspective. It’s a process I find both humbling and rewarding, and I’m excited to share it with you.

A year from now, we’ll revisit this post and see how I did.

Biggest Political Winner

Libertarians
In 2025, I predict it will be a big year for libertarian ideals—not because Libertarians will gain seats or power, but because their principles are taking center stage in a way we haven’t seen before. While libertarianism is often criticized as overly dogmatic—pushing minimal government to impractical extremes—its core ideas are gaining momentum.

The incoming Trump administration, with key leaders influenced by libertarian thinking, could bring these ideas to the forefront in areas like crypto regulation, fiscal conservatism, and anti-interventionism. Public frustration with government overreach and rising concerns about inflation, national debt, and foreign entanglements have created fertile ground for libertarian principles to resonate.

That said, true “success” will depend on whether these ideas translate into action. Achieving meaningful progress—cutting government spending, enacting thoughtful crypto policies, or scaling back foreign interventions—will be the real test. Without those outcomes, libertarianism might remain a growing influence in the discourse but fall short of driving tangible change.

Biggest Political Loser

The “Party Line”
In 2025, I think the biggest political loser will be “The Party Line”—the carefully crafted, top-down messaging from political parties, institutions, and media outlets designed to control public perception. The rise of mechanisms like Community Notes on Twitter (now X) and Meta’s planned adoption of similar tools has made it harder than ever to effectively enforce a singular narrative.

As a general rule - Leaders who stick too rigidly to the “party line” will face growing scrutiny from a public that’s better equipped than ever to call out spin and demand accountability.

Biggest Business Winner

Waymo
Self-driving cars have been the dream of technologists for years, but 2025 is the year it becomes mainstream. Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle company, made huge strides in 2024, completing over 4 million driverless rides in the U.S. Earlier this year, my wife Jackie and I took a ride in a Waymo in San Francisco, and it was incredible—smooth, safe, and undeniably futuristic. While Tesla’s FSD gets a lot of attention, and rightfully so, as it stands today it still relies on human oversight. Waymo is delivering fully driverless cars at scale, standing out in a space where GM’s Cruise stumbled and shut down. With expansion plans, rumored deals with automakers, and millions of Americans about to see or experience driverless cars for the first time, Waymo is set for continued growth, adoption, and improving - making it my biggest business winner of 2025.

Biggest Business Deal

PGA-Tour / LIV reunify Professional Golf
Professional golf has had a turbulent few years since LIV officially broke away from the PGA Tour and kicked off its inaugural season in 2022. In a period where recreational golf’s popularity in America has experienced a renaissance, the landscape of the professional game is changing rapidly.

According to the latest economic impact report conducted by the National Golf Foundation, golf’s overall participation base in the U.S. is 41.1 million, up from 32 million in 2016.
(May 2023, PGA Tour)

The PGA Tour and LIV announced a merger in June 2023, yet progress has stalled. Still, a unified framework that brings the world’s best players together more often is an undeniable win-win. I’m betting that 2025 is the year that this deal gets over the line.

Most Contrarian Belief / Long-shot

The U.S. passes a comprehensive bill on the role of immigration
Lost in the conversation about border security is a simple, yet foundational question.

”In today’s world, what role should immigration play in the United States of America?”

To answer this, we must wrestle with complicated issues like:

• How do we ensure we have a sufficient workforce for industries like construction and agriculture?

• How do we (and should we) seek to attract the best minds for critical sectors such as defense, AI, and other high-tech fields?

• How do we ensure our labor policies adequately protect the wages of American workers?

Over the last decade, immigration debates have largely revolved around border security. Should this administration effectively tackle illegal immigration on the Southern border, Americans can, should, and may well be forced to finally pivot the conversation toward broader policy reforms - for example, which visa categories (e.g., H-1B, H-2A, family-based, refugee/asylum) should be changed or expanded?

Most Anticipated Trend

Non-technical people DIY’ing software
In 2024, Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT truly broke out, capturing public imagination and expanding software’s potential. With these tools serving as both the research layer and the output layer, people are able to tackle problems, generate useful content, and articulate coherent ideas in ways that were previously unattainable.All In Podcast

Innovative generalists have been applying this technology as a “lever”. Now, highly specialized AI tools are being deployed at scale. As an example, a person with no background in software can build and deploy a basic application in less than an hour using the new Replit Agent.

I’m excited for 2025 to be the year that people begin DIY’ing software the same way they DIY projects around the house.

Most Anticipated Media

Stranger Things Season 5
While I’m not a huge TV or movie buff, I’m really looking forward to the final season of Stranger Things. The show has it all—an incredible theme, compelling characters, and some of the coolest villains I’ve ever seen. Alexa, play “Running Up That Hill” by Kate Bush.